AFC Playoff Picture!

UPDATED 6/3 - Added Points for/against for contending teams (which I believe factors into strength of victory), and updated after Chiefs and Steelers' games.
UPDATED 6/3 #2: Reflecting the Dolphins' win over the Chargers, and the Bengals' loss to the Browns.
UPDATED 6/4 - Reflecting the Texans/Colts game.
UPDATED 6/5 - Updated after the Titans' win over the Lions.
UPDATED 6/5 #2 - Reflecting the Texans' win over the Lions.

With two games left in the regular season, every game counts. We have had six teams in the AFC with 9-5 records. While the Colts aren't technically out of the playoffs yet, I'm not including them in this discussion as they are now sub-controlled.

First we assume that the NFL tie-breaker rules are applicable here. Obviously, the standard win-loss records may determine who's going to advance to the playoffs, but we're going to look a little deeper for fun. First, the division leaders:

AFC East - New England Patriots - Record: 13-2 / Conference: 9-2 / Division: 4-1
Notes: Patriots had a hard-fought year, and Ford grew as a player and a person. Winning the division and likely a first-round bye is just start for this playoff-bound team.

AFC North - Cleveland Browns - Record: 12-3 / Conference: 10-1 / Division: 5-0
Notes: Thanks to being unbeaten in the division and 9-1 in the conference, even if the Browns lose the next two games, they've clinched the division.

AFC West - Kansas City Chefs - Record: 11-4 / Conference: 7-4 / Division: 4-1
Points for: 507 / Points against: 362 / Differential: +145
Notes: The Chefs baked a delicious recipe for success this season, but still have to win to keep the Bolts away from the Division title. Winning out gets the gold, but one loss puts it in question; the Chargers and Chiefs split their series and a loss to the Broncos in Week 17 would give the tie-breaker to San Diego with the better conference record, if the Chargers win out.
UPDATE 6/3: With the Chiefs' win over the Buccs and one loss from the Chargers, they'll have the division locked up. Or they could just beat the Broncos and head into the post-season as division champs.

• Week 16 Opponent: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8) - WON 30-15
  
• Week 17 Opponent: Denver Broncos (5-10 and tanking the season for draft picks)

AFC South - Tennessee Titans (10-5) - considered a tie with the Texans, but they have a better division record and would win the division if the season ended today.
Notes: Check their stats out below.

Here's everything we know about the six teams:

Miami Dolphins - Record: 10-5 / Conference: 8-4 / Division: 5-1
Points for: 388 / Points against: 290 / Differential: +98
Notes: Seeking a wild card, the Dolphins have to get through another playoff contender in Week 16, the Chargers. They could seal the deal with a win against the Rams to go 11-5, but should the Texans tie them at the end, then Houston gets the nod due to their Week 2 encounter, which Houston won.
UPDATE 6/3: With the Dolphins' win over the Chargers, things are looking positive for Miami, and worse for San Diego. While their loss to the Texans in Week 2 may factor in, with three other wild card contenders taking losses this week, a win next week against the Raiders will guarantee them a spot in the playoffs. They might not need the insurance win, however, considering their massive points differential and 8-4 conference record.

• Week 16 Opponent: San Diego Chargers (9-5) WON
  
• Week 17 Opponent: St. Louis Rams (6-9)

Tennessee Titans - Record: 10-5 / Conference: 7-4 / Division: 4-1
Points for: 399 / Points against: 346 / Differential: +53
Notes: Looking good for a division title, the Titans have the edge in a few ways: they split their series with the Texans, and have a better division record. They face the Lions, but their season truly comes down to the down-on-their-luck Jaguars.
UPDATE 6/5: With a huge victory over Detroit, Tennessee now has one game left in the regular season against the Jaguars. If they win, they win the division. If they lose, Houston has a shot against Detroit themselves to take the division. Either way, there's a strong possibility that these rivals will meet in the playoffs.

• Week 16 Opponent: Detroit Lions (8-6) WON
  
• Week 17 Opponent: Jacksonville Jaguars (0-15)

Houston Texans of Milwaukee - Record: 11-5 / Conference: 8-4 / Division: 4-2
Points for: 400 / Points against: 316 / Differential: +84
Notes: Tied with the Titans for the division, they basically have to pray for some AFC losses. While the Texans beat the Dolphins in Week 2 (which would give them the nod if they both go 11-5), their loss to the Steelers in Week 3 could end their season should Pittsburgh get that far.
UPDATE 6/3: With the Dolphins' win over the Chargers, things are looking positive for Houston now as well. They still have two games to play, but should they remain tied with the Dolphins at the end, they will achieve the unthinkable: the first wild card spot ever for the Texans owner, as the Texans have their Week 2 win over the Dolphins as insurance.
UPDATE 6/4: With a win over the Colts, the Texans now tie the Dolphins at 10-5. Should the Titans lose to either the Lions this week or the Jaguars next, and the Texans win next week against the Lions (or if the just Titans lose to the Jaguars), they will win the division. Otherwise, win or lose next week, it's looking good for them to obtain a wild card spot thanks to their 8-4 conference record and current strength of victory.
UPDATE 6/5: With Tennessee beating Detroit, the division title is practically out of reach for Houston/Milwaukee. They have one game left against Detroit as well. Winning guarantees a spot in the playoffs, but losing while Pittsburgh wins likely keeps them out, due to their Week 3 loss to the Steelers.
UPDATE 6/5: Thanks to a big win in Detroit, Houston has earned a wild card spot if the Titans win, and get the division title if the Titans lose to the Jaguars.

• Week 16 Opponent: Indianapolis Colts (8-6) WON
  
• Week 17 Opponent: Detroit Lions (8-7)

WON

Cincinnati Bengalseats - Record: 9-6 / Conference: 7-4 / Division: 3-3
Points for: 433 / Points against: 434 / Differential: -1
Notes: The Bengals, of all wild card-seeking teams, may be looking the best in my opinion. Even with tough and sneaky-tough opponents left in the Browns and Raiders, the Bengals could end with the best conference record of the group. Additionally, sweeping the Steelers and a win over the Chargers puts them in a favorable light for getting into the playoffs... should they win their games.
UPDATE 6/3: Things aren't so sunny in Cincy, as the Bengals lost their Week 16 game against the Browns. Should they beat the Raiders in Week 17 however, their playoff hopes may still be alive, providing the Texans don't win out. Should the two remain tied, their strength of victory may determine who gets the wild card berth, and it isn't looking good for the Bengals at the moment.

• Week 16 Opponent: Cleveland Browns (11-3) LOSS
  
• Week 17 Opponent: Oakland Raiders (3-12)

Pittsb_rgh Steelers - Record: 9-6 / Conference: 7-4 / Division: 2-4
Points for: 449 / Points against: 397 / Differential: +52
Notes: Pittsburgh has it the toughest. Losing both their games against the Bengals adds to the pain of their last two games against the Redskins and Chargers. The only thing playing in their favor right now, should they win their games, is that they beat the Texans in Week 3. If it comes down to it, that may be enough for a playoff berth.
UPDATE 6/3: With the Steelers' loss to the Redskins, they're now banking on the most likely hopeful scenario of:
San Diego beats Miami, then loses to Pittsburgh; Cincinnati loses to either Cleveland or Oakland; and Houston loses to either Indianapolis or Detroit. This gives Pittsburgh a shot at the #2 wild card behind Cincinnati.
UPDATE 6/4: Should the Texans and Bengals lose in Week 17 and the Steelers win against the Chargers, the Steelers will then get into the playoffs, thanks to their Week 3 win over the Texans. These early-season games are playing a huge role in the wild card for Miami, Pittsburgh, and Houston/Milwaukee.

• Week 16 Opponent: Washington Katskins (12-2) - Loss
  
• Week 17 Opponent: San Diego Chargers (9-6)

San Diego SuperChargers - Record: 9-6 / Conference: 6-5 / Division: 4-2
Points for: 514 / Points against: 472 / Differential: +42
Notes: The Chargers, should the Chefs lose their Week 17 game against the Broncos, could be thinking not only about the wild card, but about the division title. To get there, they have to plow through two 9-5 teams, the Dolphins and the Steelers. To make matters worse, the Chargers lost Antonio Gates in their loss to the Panthers last week, taking away a huge weapon for them. With a split series against the Chefs and a loss to the Bengals in Week 6, things are all kinds of crazy in San Diego. Ideally, they'll need to win both of their tough games (obvious for any team on this list, but they seem to need it bad for their conference record as well).
UPDATE 6/3: With the Dolphins' win over the Chargers, things are looking positive for Miami, and worse for San Diego. The Chargers still have a fair shot at the playoffs... if they can get through a tough Steelers team in Week 17 and hope that the Texans lose one of their two games, and the Bengals also lose to Oakland (as Cincinnati beat the Chargers in Week 6).

• Week 16 Opponent: Miami Dolphins (9-5) LOSS
  
• Week 17 Opponent: Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6)

Week 17 Scenarios:
Now that the Texans have beaten the Lions, if the Titans lose to the Jaguars then they earn the AFC South division title. Not only that, but should Jacksonville upset Tennessee, then the Steelers, Bengals, or Chargers win their game, it's possible that the Titans would be out of the playoffs entirely, giving their wild card spot up to one of those three teams.

Wow, awesome you put so much work into this, thanks Mike.

Picking Bengals and Texans for the Wildcard right now.

ZgreenZ wrote:Wow, awesome you put so much work into this, thanks Mike.

You do have the North and West mixed up right now.

Haha, fixed it, thanks!

Rumors are Chargers coaching staff have already said "fuck it" to the season and were seen playing a round on the North course at Torrey Pines.

Great write up, Mike.

With the Steelers' loss to the Redskins, the playoff picture clears up a little more. Updating it now.

There, updated. Amazing fact: if it pans out, the wild card may come down to the match-up between the Steelers and the Chargers in Week 17. Both have a +52 point differential! And their head-to-head game is likely the make-or-break point for the season in many ways: If the Texans don't win both of their games and the Steelers beat the Chargers, their season is definitely over. Unless the Bengals lose twice.

Lots going on here!

Nice work here, Mike. And as appreciation for it, I'll choose you as one of the wild card teams. Hope you get in! I'll throw in some AFC East bias and say the Dolphins will get in as well. Some big games coming up.

Dolphins just beat the Chargers. No idea if this clears up or complicates things. Fire up the playoff scenario computer, please.

cmonks wrote:Dolphins just beat the Chargers. No idea if this clears up or complicates things. Fire up the playoff scenario computer, please.

Updated! Nothing is certain until after Week 17 is done, but the Dolphins are shooting out ahead of the other teams now!

I'd be more than happy to give up my playoff spot to someone.

omgitsbabyseat wrote:I'd be more than happy to give up my playoff spot to someone.

I would too if I even had a spot to give up haha. And great work here Mike.

Oh and another crappy write up from me on the Chargers vs Miami game to come later this weekend.

Updated to reflect the Texans' win over the Colts.

Only 1 game left this week. When are we advancing?

cmonks wrote:Only 1 game left this week. When are we advancing?

Just did! Also, I'm updating this to reflect the Titans' win over the Loins. The Tenderloins.

Phins beat Rams to end their season at 11-5. AFC playoff picture is set now, no?

cmonks wrote:Phins beat Rams to end their season at 11-5. AFC playoff picture is set now, no?

Yep, completely set.

UPDATE June 7

NFC is locked down

AFC is down to the Titans and Jaguars game to decide it.

http://4thstringleagues.pbworks.com/w/page/26737200/Playoff-Picture

mikesuszek wrote:

cmonks wrote:Phins beat Rams to end their season at 11-5. AFC playoff picture is set now, no?

Yep, completely set.

I thought if the Titans lost the Steelers would get in?

RealJeffSolo wrote:

mikesuszek wrote:

cmonks wrote:Phins beat Rams to end their season at 11-5. AFC playoff picture is set now, no?

Yep, completely set.

I thought if when the Titans lost the Steelers would get in?

Fixed that one for you Jeff

RealJeffSolo wrote:

mikesuszek wrote:

cmonks wrote:Phins beat Rams to end their season at 11-5. AFC playoff picture is set now, no?

Yep, completely set.

I thought if the Titans lost the Steelers would get in?

Yes, that's a distant possibility.

Suszek, bones makes a great broth. You can cook with bones.

Dascenzo wrote:Suszek, bones makes a great broth. You can cook with bones.

That must be why, after he soaks in a tub in the locker room after a long day of running, some players casually walk by with a ladle and scoop some of the water into a bowl.